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Our experts share the updates that matter in our global energy market feed.
After rallying yesterday afternoon, UK gas futures are neutral-bullish this morning, following a technical correction and supported by diminishing hopes for an imminent peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. - 22/08/2025
Russia has attacked a key Ukrainian gas compressor station, raising concerns of higher winter demand from neighbouring countries and compromising storage replenishment for Ukraine and Europe. - 22/08/2025
Asian LNG prices have hit a 15-month low amid reduced spot buying, easing the premium over Europe and limiting upside along the curve on reduced competition, as Europe remains an attractive destination. - 22/08/2025
The UK government has approved a record 16.1GW of new renewable capacity, improving sentiment around renewable growth, which could offer some bearish signals to further-dated contracts, though challenges remain. - 22/08/2025
Several UK nuclear reactor outages have been extended, keeping capacity constrained to 45% throughout next week and offering support to prompt energy contracts on increased reliance on gas-fired generation. - 22/08/2025
Israel has taken its first steps in a military operation in Gaza City, approving settlement plans to erase the idea of a Palestinian state, stoking fears of wider unrest in the region and offering some bullish signals along the curve. - 21/08/2025
UK gas futures are bullish this morning, retracing from recent lows, as Russia claims Ukraine security guarantees are a non-starter without their involvement, reinforcing concerns over longer-term peace prospects. - 21/08/2025
Day-ahead baseload prices are supported by lower wind output. Meanwhile, absent LNG arrivals to the UK and upcoming Norwegian maintenance are providing bullish pressure to the near-curve on a tighter supply balance. - 21/08/2025
The US Federal Reserve’s annual symposium begins today, with markets anticipating a rate cut in Sep-25, while recent data from India and Australia suggest US tariffs continue to weigh on global trade and growth. - 21/08/2025
The Brent crude benchmark edged up this morning, driven by a fall in US crude inventories and stronger demand signals in the US, with uncertainty over Russia-Ukraine peace efforts also lending support. - 21/08/2025
Growing competition for US natural gas from domestic power firms and LNG exporters could drive up prices and reduce the global competitiveness of US LNG, potentially offering some bullish signals for 2027+ contracts. - 20/08/2025
UK energy futures remain neutral-bullish as the market awaits clarity on RUS–UKR peace prospects, with the US and NATO beginning security guarantee plans, though progress remains hindered by Russia’s stance on NATO. - 20/08/2025
The US is hiking steel and aluminium tariffs on more than 400 derivative products to 50%, which will take effect immediately, disrupting global supply chains and likely weighing on macroeconomic outlooks. - 20/08/2025
Wind generation is set to decline tomorrow, supporting day-ahead baseload prices, though increased solar output limits further upside. Ongoing mid-range storage injections also curb downside for prompt gas contracts. - 20/08/2025
European storage levels are on track to reach 84% by the end of the summer season, above the 80% target and improving winter supply prospects, though still 10% below previous years, leaving conditions tight. - 20/08/2025
UK energy futures are neutral-bullish as they weigh possible talks between Russia and Ukraine following yesterday’s Trump–Zelenskiy meeting. Meanwhile, some support is coming from the announced La Niña watch for winter. - 19/08/2025
NOAA’s forecast of a transition to El Niño into 2026 is offering bullish signals to Summer-26 contracts on prospects of extreme temperatures, raising the likelihood of European heatwaves and higher US hurricane risk. - 19/08/2025
Hamas have agreed to a 60-day ceasefire proposal with Israel, Egyptian sources state, though Israel has not yet responded, creating uncertainty in the Middle East amid concerns over its plans to seize control of Gaza City. - 19/08/2025
Several maintenance outages in UK domestic gas production through August, along with upcoming Norwegian maintenance, are supporting prompt gas contracts, with potential extensions adding upside risk to futures. - 19/08/2025
Russian oil flows to Slovakia and Hungary have been halted via the Druzhba pipeline over suspected Ukrainian attack, though Ukraine neither confirm nor deny the attack, offering some support to Brent crude pricing. - 19/08/2025
UK gas futures are trading neutral-bullish this morning after prices hit a 18-month low on Friday on diminishing RUS-UKR geopolitical risk. Markets await further direction following talks between Trump and Zelenskiy today. - 18/08/2025
Trump has reneged on his threat of further sanctions on Russia, alleviating some short-term bullish risk. However, his erratic policy reversals and the remaining 25% additional tariff on India have left markets cautious. - 18/08/2025
The 580MW Heysham 1-1 and the 615MW Heysham 2-7 nuclear outages have been extended by 11 and 4 days respectively, keeping capacity constrained at 45% and offering support to prompt energy prices. - 18/08/2025
La Niña weather conditions look to be developing for the Winter-25 period, indicating colder weather risk and prospects of sharp variance in wind output, offering bullish signals to the front three seasonal energy contracts. - 18/08/2025
Rising wind generation into tomorrow is providing bearish pressure to day-ahead baseload prices, while unplanned Norwegian maintenance and lower domestic output is offering support prompt gas. - 18/08/2025
Baseload power contracts are bullish as wind generation falls sharply across NWE and moderately in the UK into Monday. However, the return of Heysham 1-1 (580MW) and 2 French reactors (1820MW) limits upside. - 15/08/2025
Near-curve and seasonal gas contracts are trading neutral-bearish, with markets trading close to the lowest levels in 2025 on an improved fundamental picture and ongoing economic weakness across Europe. - 15/08/2025
Near-curve and front-season gas fell around 1-2% yesterday on news that European storage is on track to reach 88% by 01-Nov, aided by strong US LNG flows and an improved weather outlook across Europe. - 15/08/2025
Markets are likely to remain responsive to US-Russia peace talks in Alaska today, with discussions to involve the lifting of Russian sanctions. Trump is also planning follow-up discussions with Zelenskiy next week. - 15/08/2025
Centrica’s £1.66bn Grain LNG acquisition signals reduced appetite to invest in Rough storage, supporting seasonal contracts amid reduced supply security and heightened risk during periods of peak demand. - 15/08/2025
Day-ahead power contracts are trading bearish amid forecasts of a sharp increase in solar output into tomorrow, whilst cooler Continental temperatures reduces power-for-cooling demand and fossil fuel reliance. - 14/08/2025
French spot power markets face bullish pressure from EDF extending heat-related nuclear curtailments to 2.6 GW amid high river temperatures and maintenance. This continues to restrict imports to the UK. - 14/08/2025
UK GDP growth of 0.3% in Q2, exceeding forecasts of 0.1%, goes some way towards mitigating UK economic concerns and supporting near-term power and gas futures contracts. - 14/08/2025
US LNG exports have risen 22% year-to-date, driven by increasing European demand. This continues to provide bearish signals along the curve, improving Europe's gas supply outlook. - 14/08/2025
EU carbon is trading neutral-bearish this morning on improving fundamentals on the Continent, though net speculative long EUA positions surged to a 4.5-month high of 28.9m allowances, limiting downside. - 14/08/2025
Day-ahead energy contracts are trading neutral to bullish amid a decline in solar into tomorrow, whilst warm Continental temperatures maintain power-for-cooling demand. Increasing wind output is limiting the upside. - 13/08/2025
EDF will halt the Bugey 3 reactor (915MW) for two days and curb output at other reactors as Rhone and Garonne river temperatures soar, tightening supply and adding bullish pressure to near-term power prices. - 13/08/2025
European leaders and Zelenskiy are holding virtual talks today with Trump ahead of his Putin summit, seeking to guard against a Ukraine peace deal that could undermine Kyiv’s security and shift geopolitical risk perceptions. - 13/08/2025
Norway’s new fixed retail power price, starting 01-Oct 2025, could lend support to winter contracts on reduced import prospects as a lack of incentives to save electricity carry the potential to lift peak winter demand by 1 GW. - 13/08/2025
French and Spanish spot power prices hit multi-week highs as heatwave-driven demand and supply constraints maintains support to summer contracts, reiterating ongoing concerns around climate-driven risk. - 13/08/2025
Day-ahead energy contracts are trading bullish amid forecasts of a decline in wind and solar into tomorrow, whilst warmer Continental temperatures boost power-for-cooling demand and gas reliance. - 12/08/2025
French spot power prices surged to €79.84/MWh as a summer heatwave and unscheduled nuclear outages reduced supply, weighing on UK spot power through limited scope for imports. - 12/08/2025
A Tropical Storm is approaching the US Gulf region. Despite not being expected to impact US LNG facilities, it highlights the ongoing risk of Atlantic hurricane season and could limit downside to near-curve gas. - 12/08/2025
European shares rose 0.4% in morning trading as investor confidence improved amid the US–China tariff truce extension. This could be a supportive element to wider commodity markets. - 12/08/2025
The UK and EU Carbon and Brent crude benchmarks contracts are trading flat ahead of Trump-Putin talks in Alaska and the release of US inflation data, with markets awaiting some clearer direction. - 12/08/2025
Day-ahead energy contracts are bullish as French nuclear output is curtailed amid warmer temperatures and a delay to Heysham 1-1's (580MW) return, though a ramp up in solar is limiting upside. - 11/08/2025
Reports of Jul-25 being the hottest on record are stimulating further concerns around demand spikes from frequent summer heatwaves in Northwest Europe and supporting summer energy futures. - 11/08/2025
UK gas futures are trading bullish this morning, with markets sceptical about progress in the Trump-Putin summit as Ukraine is unlikely to accept the territorial concessions Trump is considering. - 11/08/2025
Later-dated baseload futures are bullish as news of Britain curtailing 4.6 TWh of wind generation due to grid bottlenecks in H1-25 highlights concerns surrounding the UK's renewable expansion. - 11/08/2025
Geopolitical risk is being maintained in the Middle East as Iran is still blocking access to nuclear sites from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and has threatened to block an Azeri energy corridor. - 11/08/2025
EDF have warned of a 7.7GW cut to French nuclear output next week due to high river temperatures in the Rhone region, potentially constraining power import prospects and offering support to prompt energy prices. - 08/08/2025
Despite the UK continuing to secure no LNG cargoes for Aug-25, Northwest Europe has begun securing Sep-25 deliveries aiding ongoing storage replenishment. However, UK LNG stocks currently remain high. - 08/08/2025
Forecasts of unseasonably low wind output next week point to a 22 mcm/d week-on-week rebound in gas-for-power demand, offering bullish pressure to day-ahead baseload contracts and by extension, gas. - 08/08/2025
UK gas futures remain neutral as markets await Trump’s 08-Aug Russian peace deal deadline, with the prospect of further tariffs looming. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to suppress downside along the curve. - 08/08/2025
Vertis has revised its yearly EU carbon price forecasts up by 10% for the period through to 2027 as free allocations are expected to decline by almost 19% year-on-year in 2026, offering bullish signals carbon benchmarks. - 08/08/2025
UK gas futures fell yesterday afternoon on easing supply concerns as markets assessed a limited likelihood of Trump targeting Russian gas flows in his upcoming tariff package on Russian trading partners due 08-Aug. - 07/08/2025
Trump announced on Wednesday an additional 25% tariff on India over their purchase of Russian oil, bringing the total to 50%, and has hinted at further tariffs on China despite ongoing trade negotiations. - 07/08/2025
Ukraine’s gas storage is at a 12-year low and a recent Russian attack on the Odesa region's gas interconnector, a key route for supplying US and Azerbaijani gas to the region, continues to provide some risk to W-25 supply. - 07/08/2025
Wind generation is set to decline into tomorrow, supporting day-ahead baseload contracts. Meanwhile, increasing Norwegian flows to the UK are offsetting mid-range storage injections, limiting upside to prompt gas. - 07/08/2025
The EU carbon benchmark is neutral-bearish this morning. Despite speculative investors increasing net-long positions to a six-week high, improved weather fundamentals on the Continent are limiting further gains. - 07/08/2025
Day-ahead baseload contracts are bearish this morning, driven by forecasts of an increase in wind generation tomorrow, which is expected to reduce gas-for-power demand by 5 mcm/d. - 06/08/2025
UK gas futures remain neutral-bearish, continuing to trade within a narrow sideways range as global economies grapple with US tariff policies and recent US economic data shows signs of stagflation. - 06/08/2025
As Egypt remains a net LNG importer, it is attempting to reschedule contracted LNG deliveries, which could tighten global supply and increase pressure on spot LNG markets to make up the shortfall. - 06/08/2025
Sources close to the Kremlin indicate that Putin is unlikely to yield to Trump’s sanctions ultimatum, which expires on 08-Aug, signalling low prospects for peace and supporting geopolitical risk along the curve. - 06/08/2025
Germany’s SEFE is set to auction 3 TWh of gas storage capacity at Rehden on Wednesday, for the 2025-26 period, as gas stocks ahead of winter remain low in Europe’s largest gas consumer. - 06/08/2025
A sharp drop in wind generation into tomorrow is providing considerable bullish pressure to day-ahead baseload contracts. This is exacerbated by UK nuclear capacity falling to 64%, adding pressure to the UK power stack. - 05/08/2025
While global LNG exports remain elevated, heightened competition with Asia, driven by maintenance at Australian facilities and heatwaves across parts of Northeast Asia, is limiting downside to near-curve gas contracts. - 05/08/2025
Moldova has officially ended its gas supply agreement with Russia, effectively ending the country’s reliance on Russian gas and highlighting Europe’s ongoing efforts to diversify away from Russian energy supplies. - 05/08/2025
UK gas futures are retracing from yesterday afternoon’s upside, driven by Trump’s announcement of steeper tariffs on Indian exports if they continue purchasing Russia crude, sparking concerns of disruptions to energy flows. - 05/08/2025
Maintenance at European LNG terminals has reduced LNG sendout, but robust storage levels and steady Norwegian flows are helping to offset the impact and limit upside to prompt gas contracts. - 05/08/2025
Wind generation peaks into tomorrow, averaging 9GW above seasonal normal, providing substantial bearish pressure to day-ahead baseload prices, while 38mcm/d of mid-range storage injections support gas contracts. - 04/08/2025
Recent heatwaves in Europe drove a 7.5% year-on-year increase in power demand, with trend signals pointing to a structural shift from winter to summer peak demand, offering support to summer contracts along the curve. - 04/08/2025
Global LNG exports are up 15% year-on-year due to a continued ramp up in US capacity. This is helping to limit upside to near-curve gas contracts on improving supply fundamentals, aiding EU storage replenishment. - 04/08/2025
UK gas futures are neutral-bullish this morning, largely shrugging of Trump's response to comments about nuclear capabilities from top Putin aide, with markets viewing it as rhetorical rather than signalling military tension. - 04/08/2025
OPEC+ have agreed to continue output hikes into September, marking a full reversal of output cuts , though concerns around disruptions to Russian oil shipments to major importer India have weighed on the market. - 04/08/2025
The day-ahead baseload contract is strong bearish this morning as a sharp rise in wind output and the return of Hartlepool 1 (595MW) offset a scheduled outage at Torness 1 (595MW). - 01/08/2025
Prompt gas is neutral-bullish this morning, with reduced gas-for-power demand into Monday being offset by reduced Norwegian flows amid a 13 mcm/d outage at the Karsto facility. - 01/08/2025
Trump has announced steep tariffs on dozens of trading partners as the 01-Aug deadline is reached, with UK gas futures trading sideways as the markets digest the macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty. - 01/08/2025
The EU carbon benchmark is shifting down in morning trading on a recovery in wind output in Northwest Europe. European equities have also declined which could be providing direction. - 01/08/2025
A 4.1GW windfarm in Scotland has been granted approval, a positive sign for the UK's renewable growth. However, challenges around transferring energy to higher demand areas will limit downside potential. - 01/08/2025
The day-ahead baseload contracts is pointing sharply down this morning on the back of rising wind output into tomorrow. Northwest Europe is seeing an equivalent rise in wind, offsetting French reactor outages. - 31/07/2025
Prompt gas is trading neutral this morning, with reductions in gas-for-power demand and improved supply being offset by higher Continental demand driven by maintained storage injections and diminished LNG sendout. - 31/07/2025
UK gas futures are trading neutral-bearish this morning on the back of new US tariff updates yesterday. This followed a steep increase on Tuesday and a minor recovery on Wednesday on a positive macroeconomic view. - 31/07/2025
The UK currently has no scheduled LNG imports for August, though Europe as a whole is scheduled for 40 cargoes so far. Demand signals from Northeast Asia could be contributing to increased competition. - 31/07/2025
Some reports suggest the EU must double its current wind growth to meet 2030 targets, though solar is on track. This acts as a supportive factor along the curve, highlighting ongoing challenges in the European wind sector. - 31/07/2025
The day-ahead power contract is bullish this morning despite a slight uptick in wind output which is decreasing overall gas-for-power demand. Prompt gas is neutral-bearish and baseload could end up tracking this. - 30/07/2025
UK gas futures rallied in yesterday's trading, with seasons gaining 1-3% on the back of gains in European equity markets. Upside was reflected in carbon markets, which gained 2-3%, and crude which was up 4%. - 30/07/2025
UK gas futures are neutral-bearish this morning, pulling back from yesterday despite an earthquake hitting Russia this morning. No gas hubs were hit, but it has triggered concerns over the resilience of Russian infrastructure. - 30/07/2025
Weak Asian demand has contributed to a 41% increase in LNG imports to Europe in Jul-25, relative to Jul-24, providing bearish signals. However, Japanese LNG stocks have hit the lowest this year in a sign of potential reversal. - 30/07/2025
Members of the European Parliament have stated they do not intend to grant exceptions from the Russian gas ban to Slovakia and Hungary, lending support to 2028+ seasonal energy futures. - 30/07/2025
Day-ahead baseload contracts are trading flat this morning, with a slight uptick in wind output being reflected in declining solar. Prompt gas is bullish, continuing to take signals from the near-curve. - 29/07/2025
UK gas futures are trading bullish this morning, with the macroeconomic picture supportive and Trump's shortened deadline, 10-12 days, for Russia to advance peace heightening geopolitical uncertainty. - 29/07/2025
Optimism around the US-EU and US-Japan trade deals is fading in Asian financial markets, with the impact on economic growth of tariffs, even if reduced, in focus. This could be start to be reflected in Europe as well. - 29/07/2025
US-EU energy deal seems unlikely to boost EU gas imports more than had already been anticipated, providing minimal downwards pressure to seasonal energy futures. EU already purchases 80% of US LNG. - 29/07/2025
Germany has put forward a EUR 42bn energy cost reduction for 2029, including grid subsidies and industrial relief. This could support the demand outlook for Europe and lend some supportive along the curve. - 29/07/2025
The day ahead baseload contract is bullish this morning amid an extended decline in wind output. Import prospects relatively unchanged, sending no clear signals. Gas is bearish, tracking futures contracts. - 28/07/2025
UK gas futures are trading mostly bearish to neutral-bearish despite the US-EU trade deal, with positive fundamentals offsetting any bullish pressure as EU LNG imports are on track to be 39% higher in July than last year. - 28/07/2025
EDF sees French power prices rising 11% to EUR 70/MWh by 2030, with long-term nuclear contracts set to replace current capped wholesale sales. This could lend some support to later-dated contracts. - 28/07/2025
The Brent Crude benchmark is trading neutral-bullish this morning following the US-EU tariff deal and potential extension of the US-China tariff pause. This trend could be reflected in wider energy markets. - 28/07/2025
Qatar threatens EU gas cuts over new sustainability rules, raising supply risk and adding bullish pressure to future gas prices. However, this may be limited by a recent slowdown in European imports from the region. - 28/07/2025
Day-ahead energy contracts are trading flat to neutral-bearish this morning, though they could shift down today on the back of improved wind output, cooler temperatures and improved Norwegian gas output. - 25/07/2025
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