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The prompt power contract is bullish, with Torness 2 (595 MW) entering planned maintenance and wind output decreasing into Monday, though cooler temperatures in Europe may limit upside on reduced cooling demand. - 04/07/2025
Heatwaves this summer are subduing wind and nuclear output as power-for-cooling demand peaks, lending support to summer energy futures on a tighter balance between supply and demand. - 04/07/2025
Gas futures are trading neutral-bullish this morning, though Iran reaffirming their commitment to nuclear talks is providing a limit to upside on a further reduction in geopolitical risk in the region. - 04/08/2025
UK and EU carbon are neutral-bearish despite supportive fundamentals, with a fall in European equities amid Central Bank warnings around unresolved trade deals ahead of the 09-Jul end to tariff pause providing downside. - 04/09/2025
European LNG imports have hit a six-month low in June as Asia's demand is reignited by warmer temperatures in the region and signs of industrial demand recovery. This could lend some support to near-curve energy. - 04/10/2025
Summer wind generation across Europe has weakened over the past decade amid increasingly frequent extreme temperatures, a trend that is anticipated to continue and could offer bullish signals to summer contracts. - 03/07/2025
Heatwaves across the Continent are increasing intraday volatility in European energy markets by creating a growing mismatch between renewable energy output and peak demand, challenging grids and market dynamics. - 03/08/2025
UK gas futures are largely sideways this morning amid growing macroeconomic uncertainty, as market await US job data, the impending US 90-day tariff pause deadline and an unpredictable French budget vote. - 03/09/2025
The UK has secured its first LNG cargo for Jul-25. However, rising US natural gas futures, driven by forecasts of warmer weather and declining Russian LNG to Europe exports is limiting the downside for near-curve gas contracts. - 03/10/2025
Wind generation continues to climb into tomorrow, alongside firm solar output is providing bearish pressure to day-ahead baseload prices. Gains in the UK carbon benchmark have limited further downside. - 03/11/2025
Day-ahead power is bearish as rising wind output into tomorrow reduces gas-fired generation demand. However, reduced imports due to strain in Europe, particularly France, is limiting the downwards pressure. - 02/07/2025
Day-ahead gas is pointing up this morning as Norwegian gas flows are down 29 mcm/d today due to an outage extension, whilst gas demand on the Continent remains elevated on injection and power sector demand. - 02/07/2025
Intense heatwaves currently gripping France could become a new normal as climate change drives weather pattern changes. This could become a supportive factor to future summer energy contracts. - 02/07/2025
Gas futures are trading up this morning, with Iran suspending International Atomic Energy Agency cooperation, fuelling geopolitical risk, whilst French nuclear concerns also lend support. - 02/07/2025
European equities have been staging a recovery, providing bullish signals to carbon markets. Reduced nuclear output, weaker renewables and strong cooling demand this week have also been lending support. - 02/07/2025
The day-ahead baseload contract is bullish amid forecasts of low solar generation and below-seasonal wind output into tomorrow. The upside is exacerbated by weakness in French nuclear and high European cooling demand. - 01/07/2025
Ofgem has provisionally approved a $33 billion investment programme to upgrade the UK’s electricity and gas networks, supporting grid expansion and resilience, a necessary step for the buildout of renewable capacity. - 01/07/2025
The front-month baseload contract is bullish amid EDF reducing 1.3 GW of nuclear output in southern France due to elevated river temperatures, bringing into focus climate-driven risks that could impact European output. - 01/07/2025
European LNG imports rose 21.6% in H1-25, offsetting a 6.4% decline in Asian demand, as the Continent seeks to replenish storage ahead of winter. However, Asian factory rebound and warmer temperatures are raising demand. - 01/07/2025
European factory orders have stopped falling last month for the first time in 3 years. This could signal a shift towards demand growth in Europe and could provide some bullish signals along the curve. - 01/07/2025
The day-ahead gas contract is bullish amid reduced Norwegian gas flows and increased gas-fired generation driven by forecasts of low renewable output; prompt baseload is also pointing sharply up. - 30/06/2025
Near-curve gas contracts are neutral-bearish this morning, with the market continuing to trade in this lower range after the Israel-Iran ceasefire which appears to be holding. - 30/06/2026
Asian spot LNG prices fell from a four-month high as the Iran-Israel ceasefire reduced supply disruption risks, shifting market focus back to subdued demand in China and South Korea. - 30/06/2027
The Brent Crude benchmark is flat this morning after sharp declines last week prices driven by easing Middle East tensions following the Iran-Israel ceasefire and expectations of an OPEC+ output increase in August. - 30/06/2028
The UK and EU carbon benchmarks are shifting down in morning trading, however power supply fundamentals for the next two weeks are supportive and could contribute to a change in price direction. - 30/06/2029
Russia has extended the suspension of Gazprombank gas payments by a further 3-months until Oct-25, easing short-term supply concerns for the remaining European buyers of Russian LNG and pipeline gas. - 27/06/2025
UK gas futures are largely neutral-bearish this morning, as geopolitical risk continues to be stripped away along the curve, and macroeconomic concerns persist with the 90-day tariff pause deadline looming. - 27/06/2026
Gulf tanker rates have begun to drop as the ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds, reducing war risk insurance premiums for Gulf shipments and offering some bearish signals to LNG prices and near-curve gas contracts. - 27/06/2027
The JKM benchmark continues to trade at a premium to the TTF amid rising pockets of demand in Asia; however, Chinese LNG demand has fallen for an eighth straight month, helping to limit some bullish signals. - 27/06/2028
A sharp drop in wind generation to below seasonal levels into Monday is supporting day-ahead baseload contracts. Meanwhile a ramp up in mid-range storage injection is limiting downside to prompt gas prices. - 27/06/2029
Analysts suggest that the European TTF gas benchmark will trade 5% higher year-on-year in H2 amid ongoing concerns over supply risks driven by low EU storage levels, geopolitical uncertainty, and the lack of Russian gas flows. - 26/06/2025
Gas futures are moving down this moving as Israeli gas fields Karish and Leviathan are set to ramp up exports following closure during the Israel-Iran conflict, limiting prospects for further increases in Egyptian LNG demand. - 26/06/2025
The Energy Transitions Commission finds that 40% of the solutions needed for net-zero are already, or will be by 2030, more cost-effective than fossil fuels, offering bearish signals for UK energy futures on reduced gas dependence. - 26/06/2025
Gas prices saw their biggest intraday drop in two years on Tuesday, driven by algorithmic trading. CTAs flipped positions rapidly after Israel confirmed a ceasefire, triggering a cascading event with drove prices lower. - 26/06/2025
Forecasts of warmer temperatures across the US and Asia are expected to increase demand for natural gas to feed power-for-cooling, limiting downside for near-curve contracts amid tighter supply dynamics. - 26/06/2025
UK gas futures are neutral to bullish this morning after coming under considerable bearish pressure yesterday, retracting recent gains amid improved peace sentiment and easing geopolitical risks following the Israel-Iran ceasefire. - 25/06/2025
The European Commission has approved the loosening of gas storage targets to 80% under extreme market conditions, including for W-25, easing some summer buying pressure. However, this could have repercussions into 2026. - 25/06/2025
EDF has cut output at several reactors due to adverse weather conditions, with extreme heat raising river temperatures. Mounting climate concerns leave French nuclear particularly exposed to environmental stressors. - 25/06/2025
A sharp rebound in wind generation, reducing gas-for-power demand by 24mcm/d is providing bearish pressure to day-head baseload prices. Meanwhile mid-range storage injections are supporting prompt gas contracts. - 25/06/2025
Babcock’s upgraded forecast and the UK’s 5% defence spending target reflect growing domestic rearmament that could drive up industrial energy demand, offering bullish signals along the curve. - 25/06/2025
UK gas futures have begun retracing much of their recent gains after a tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran was agreed to on Tuesday morning, though signs that it may be short-lived could sustain geopolitical risk. - 23/06/2025
LNG tanker rates have hit an 8-month high as vessel availability tightens, with spot cargoes increasingly incentivised to travel to Asia, extending journey times. This could support LNG prices and limit further downside. - 23/06/2025
The US LNG facility Sabine Pass has returned from maintenance, while LNG Canada has begun exporting its first cargoes, improving global LNG supply conditions and sending bearish signals to near-curve gas contracts. - 23/06/2025
A plummet in wind generation into tomorrow alongside weaker solar output is providing bullish pressure to day-ahead baseload contracts. Improving Norwegian flows is offering downside to prompt gas prices. - 23/06/2025
After rallying to a 5-month high, the Brent crude benchmark has started to give back its gains on news of a ceasefire deal brokered between Israel and Iran. However, uncertainty remains about its implementation. - 23/06/2025
UK energy futures are neutral-bullish as US involvement in the Israel-Iran war over the weekend has heightened regional tensions and raised fears of a wider conflict. Uncertainty over the Iranian response is limiting further upside. - 23/06/2025
Iran’s parliament voted Sunday to close the vital Strait of Hormuz, though final approval is still needed, keeping energy and commodity markets on edge despite Kpler data showing no notable impact so far in the region. - 23/06/2025
Wind generation is set to decline into tomorrow, adding bullish pressure to day-ahead baseload prices. Ongoing concerns over French nuclear output amid regional temperature warnings will continue to support prompt contracts. - 23/06/2025
The UK government’s new industrial strategy to cut energy bills for intensive industries by 25% by 2027 to address high power costs is offering bullish signals to further dated contracts on prospects of increased demand. - 23/06/2025
The 595 MW Hartlepool 1 and 2 nuclear reactor outages have been extended by 12 and 14 days respectively, reducing generation forecasts into July and August and providing support to near-curve energy prices. - 23/06/2025
After rallying yesterday afternoon, UK energy futures are now neutral-bearish, as Trump’s delay of potential Israel-Iran involvement eased immediate market concerns, though short-term volatility remains. - 20/06/2025
French river temperatures are expected to impact nuclear production next week, as a heatwave sweeps the region, offering bullish signals for prompt baseload contracts due to potential power import constraints. - 20/06/2025
A sharp rebound in wind generation into Monday is offering bearish pressure to day-ahead energy contracts, with an anticipated 23 mcm/d drop in gas-for-power demand offsetting the expected rise in LDZ demand. - 20/06/2025
Israel has resumed limited natural gas exports from surplus supplies, boosting supply prospects for Egypt. Despite ongoing missile strikes in the region, no damage to energy infrastructure has been reported. - 20/06/2025
The World Weather Attribution says UK heatwaves over 28°C for three+ days are now 10 times more likely due to climate change, posing bullish signals to UK energy futures due to impacts on renewable and nuclear output. - 20/06/2025
Tanker rates have doubled amid ongoing Israel-Iran tensions, as shipowners are reluctant to risk using the critical Strait of Hormuz, helping to keep LNG prices elevated and offering support to near-curve gas contracts. - 19/06/2025
Egypt is unlikely to increase its spot LNG demand despite a cut in Israeli gas flows to the country, as limited import capacity is dampening near-term demand signals and limiting further upside risk. - 19/06/2025
Ambiguity over potential US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict, along with ongoing speculation-driven sentiment, continues to heighten geopolitical risk to energy contracts all along the curve. - 19/06/2025
The UK has secured an additional LNG cargo for Jun-25, bringing the total to 4, with total volumes up 81% compared to last years June imports, helping to limit some bullish pressure to near-curve gas prices. - 19/06/2025
An uptick in wind generation into tomorrow is providing some bearish pressure to day-ahead baseload prices. Meanwhile an undersupplied system and reduced Norwegian flows are driving upside to prompt gas prices. - 19/06/2025
Qatar confirmed that output at the South Pars gas field, is steady and proceeding as normal after it was hit by an Israeli strike. However, the lack of signs of de-escalation in the region highlights further risk to supply. - 18/06/2025
Kpler data suggests that several LNG tankers are holding near Oman as tensions escalate around the Strait of Hormuz, prompting heightened caution among shipping operators in the region. - 18/06/2025
EDF has confirmed the reappearance of stress corrosion cracks on the Civaux 2 reactor; however, it stated that this should have no impact on 2025 nuclear output estimates, which remain unchanged. - 18/06/2025
Sentiment surrounding Middle Eastern geopolitics continues to drive the rally in UK energy futures, amid unconfirmed Iranian calls to restrict Strait of Hormuz transit for 100 days and fears of deeper US involvement. - 18/06/2025
Trump’s threat to impose higher tariffs on the EU and Japan following stalled G7 trade talks increases protectionist risks ahead of the 09-July deadline, heightening market uncertainty and limiting further upside. - 18/06/2025
An undersupplied UK gas system and an ongoing decline in wind generation are providing bullish pressure on day-ahead energy contracts, with gas-for-demand expected to rise by 36 mcm/d tomorrow. - 17/06/2025
UK gas futures are maintaining their bullish trajectory, spurred by limited signs of de-escalation between Israel and Iran. However, investor flight to safety amid ongoing uncertainty could help limit further gains. - 17/06/2025
Ember forecasts a 7% drop in EU gas demand by 2030, driven by renewables and electrification this could offer bearish signals along the curve, reflecting expectations of a long-term reduction in fossil fuel consumption. - 17/06/2025
The EU is forging ahead with plans to ban Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, invoking legal measures to prevent Slovakia and Hungary from blocking the proposed law, effectively ending the bloc's use of Russian gas. - 17/06/2025
Asian spot LNG demand is rising amid geopolitical uncertainty and warmer temperature forecasts; however, high EU LNG stocks and prices remain too high to open the inter-basin arbitrage for US supply limiting bullish impact. - 17/06/2025
Prompt gas contracts are receiving support from a fall in Norwegian exports to the UK amid ongoing maintenance. Meanwhile a rebound in nuclear output is providing some downside to day-head baseload prices. - 16/06/2025
UK energy futures continue to rally to the upside, with little signs of easing tensions between Israel and Iran as they both continue there assaults. Winter-25 contracts have broke through their recent 100p/therm resistance level. - 16/06/2025
Iran has partially suspended production at South Pars, the world's largest gas field, following a fire caused by an Israeli drone strike on Saturday, sending bullish signals along the curve amid signs of supply disruptions. - 16/06/2025
Chinese LNG imports are forecast to decline by 6–11% this year due to weak industrial demand and strong domestic and piped gas supply, potentially offsetting growing demand signals from South and Southeast Asia. - 16/06/2025
A yellow temperature warning has been issued in France, raising concerns about already strained river levels and their impact on nuclear output, providing bullish pressure to near-curve energy contracts. - 16/06/2025
The past 21 out of 22 months have seen average global surface temperatures exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, raising concerns about the ongoing effects of climatisation on energy demand and renewable output. - 13/06/2025
UK energy futures have rallied this morning amid mounting geopolitical tensions as Israel strikes Iranian nuclear facilities and vows to continue doing so, with Iran launching retaliatory measures in response. - 13/06/2025
Egypt has agreed to purchase up to 160 LNG cargoes through 2026, with around 60 expected this year. The is offering bullish signals along the curve amid rising competition and already strained European supply dynamics. - 13/06/2025
Prompt energy contracts are receiving bullish pressure from a doubling of reduced flows from Norway's Oseberg, wind generation falling below seasonal norms into Monday, and a series of unplanned nuclear outages. - 13/06/2025
Wider commodities have tracked bullish sentiment seen in gas markets, driven primarily by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The UK carbon benchmark is also receiving support from declining wind output. - 13/06/2025
Falling wind output is supportive to prompt contracts, however temperatures are increasing along with decreasing cloud cover which will help offset some of the bullish pressure provided by wind. - 12/06/2025
Reactors Sizewell B1 and Sizewell B2 both went down today for unplanned maintenance, with a combined total of 1260MW unexpectedly going offline and providing bullish pressure to day-ahead contracts. - 12/06/2025
European natural gas prices rose yesterday and opened higher this morning, driven by reports of potential issues at French nuclear facilities and renewed optimism around US–China trade talks. - 12/06/2025
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has passed a resolution declaring that Iran is in non-compliance with its nuclear safeguards for the first time in 20 years, providing support to futures on geopolitical risk. - 12/06/2025
British economic output fell in April, the most significant contraction in nearly two years, driven by US tariffs. This highlights the bearish impact that ongoing trade disputes are having. - 12/06/2025
Day ahead power is down substantially amid wind output jumping from it's lowest point of the week, today, to the highest point tomorrow. Further bearish pressure is added from temperatures increasing into tomorrow. - 11/06/2025
On Tuesday, the World Bank slashed its global growth forecast for 2025 by 0.4% to 2.3%, saying that higher tariffs and heightened uncertainty posed a significant headwind for nearly all economies. - 11/06/2025
Hartlepool 1 nuclear reactor has had it's scheduled maintenance end date pushed back by ~2 weeks to 23-Jul offering some bullish pressure to front month gas and power contracts on tighter low carbon generation. - 11/06/2025
EU storage injections are seeing levels as high as 5000GWh per day, levels not seen since the energy crisis 2022, adding bearish pressure to summer refilling contracts and to the front three seasons. - 11/06/2025
The UK and EU carbon benchmarks are climbing this morning on anticipation ahead of the Commitment of Traders Report. Investor positions had been holding steady, but this could be a sign of increased long positions. - 11/06/2025
Asian imports of US LNG are down 40% year-on-year due to weak demand and tariff implications. Ongoing reluctance by Asian commodity importers to increase US energy imports is offering bearish signals along the curve. - 10/06/2025
Trump’s administration is preparing sweeping sanctions on Russia, targeting its shadow oil fleet, LNG projects, and energy-linked firms, echoing the EU’s stance in its recently announced 17th sanctions package. - 10/06/2025
UK energy futures are mixed this morning, with no clear direct as the market awaits news from ongoing US-China trade talks. However, concerns over China's rare-earth minerals bottleneck could signal a global supply crisis. - 10/06/2025
The UK has invested £14bn into Sizewell C nuclear project, though the regulated-assets-base(RAB) funding model has raised concerns of added costs to energy bills providing bullish signals to further dated seasonal contracts. - 10/06/2025
Wind generation will dip to its lowest point tomorrow offering support to day-ahead baseload contracts. However, an unexpected increase in flows from Oseberg tomorrow is providing some downside to prompt gas prices. - 10/06/2025
The unplanned outage at the 595MW Hartlepool 2 nuclear reactor has been extended by 20 days until 30-Jun, keeping nuclear capacity constrained to 73%, offering support to prompt contracts. - 09/06/2025
Declining wind output into tomorrow and gains in the UK carbon benchmark are limiting downside to day-ahead baseload contracts. Meanwhile warmer temperatures continue to reduce LDZ demand. - 09/06/2025
Long-term weather forecasts for Southern and Eastern Europe signal heightened summer temperature risks, with persistent hydro and drought concerns providing bullish signal to near-curve baseload contracts. - 09/06/2025
UK gas futures are mixed this morning, with the near-curve retracing some of last weeks upside on improved EU storage outlook. Uncertain macroeconomic conditions continue to cloud further-dated energy futures. - 09/06/2025
Trade talks between the US and China, the world’s two largest economies, are set to take place today following discussions between their leaders late last week. Tariff impacts are already weighing on China’s economy. - 09/06/2025
Drought risks remain heightened in the UK after the driest spring in 130 years, threatening summer water levels and posing challenges to renewable and nuclear output offering support to near-curve baseload contracts. - 06/06/2025
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