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Energy Market Update – 5th June 2018

Key Points:

  • UK electricity prices continue the upward movement this morning, taking support from the UK nat gas curve.
  • Fuel prices in the UK hit an 18 year high, according to RAC statistics.

Electricity Prices:

UK Electricity prices are trading higher, in line with gas. The strong upward movement on Monday has extended to Tuesday morning. The month ahead electricity contract is currently at £55.28/MWh. The power system margin is supported by a healthy generation from nat gas. Wind generation is quite low, reaching it lowest level in 2 years.

Long term contracts are also trading higher. Win-18 is currently at £60.85/MWh, up 0.33% on yesterday’s close.  Sum-19 is consolidating around £49.00/MWh.

The support from seasonal contracts came from European coal contracts that have strengthened over the last few days. Carbon emissions are also trading higher, reaching a new high.

UK Natural Gas prices:

On Monday, UK gas prices rebounded from bearish session on the back end of last week. Tuesday morning has been bullish too with month ahead trading at 56.70p/th, up by 0.72% (0.40p/th).

The system is currently undersupplied by 3 million cubic meters, as colder weather lifted gas demand to 150 mcm/d. the UK gas system is going through a maintenance period with St. Fergus, Bacton and Teeside terminals delivering reduced amount of gas. The Berge Arzew vessel unloaded LNG volumes at the Isle of Grain on Monday and will be followed by the Al Karaana vessel on 10th June. The Dragon terminal is also expected to receive a delivery via the Al Bahiya vessel on 8th June.

Further out the curve, Win-18 is consolidating around 63.40p/th, while Sum-19 is 48.15p/th. Further dated contracts like Sum-20 and Win-20 are not trading actively.

Brent Crude had a bullish start this morning, but now the European oil index is reversing. Brent Crude is currently at $75.29/bbl. While WTI is at $64.75/bbl. The spread between both benchmark reached 10, meaning that WTI is becoming attractive enough to increase American oil shipments to Europe.

Macroeconomics:

Petrol prices rose by 6p a litre in May – the biggest monthly increase since the RAC began tracking prices 18 years ago. Average petrol prices hit 129.4p a litre, while average diesel prices also rose by 6p to 132.3p a litre. The main driver behind the rising cost of fuel is bullish Crude Oil prices as well as weakening Pound.