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Near curve energy contracts could see some potential downside as the UK now has six LNG cargoes confirmed for April, helping the UK to inject into storage which is currently sat at 44%. - 15/04/2024
Wind generation is forecast to see a slight dip into tomorrow, providing some potential upside to day-ahead energy contracts on greater demand for gas-fired generation. - 15/04/2024
Near curve energy contracts could see possible downside as the UK continues to inject into storage before the summer cooling demand period begins. - 15/04/2024
Norwegian flows to the UK are currently sat at 62mcm/d, down by 24mcm from last Friday. This can be put down to heavy unplanned maintenance in Norway, applying bullish pressure to day-ahead gas contracts. - 15/04/2024
The Brent Crude benchmark has seen some downside as market participants dial back risk premiums following Iran’s failed weekend attack on Israel. - 15/04/2024
Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure are pushing up day ahead gas prices, as a shortfall in Ukrainian domestic generation would require increased power imports, leading to tightening supply fundamentals. - 12/04/2024
Freeport LNG experienced an outage on train 3, reducing output capacity and instilling further bullish sentiment in gas futures on a further reduction in LNG supply. - 12/04/2024
High wind generation and increased nuclear capacity is helping to diversify the UK power stack, adding bearish pressure to day-ahead baseload contracts on reduced demand for gas-fired generation. - 12/04/2024
European LNG prices have hit a 3-month high on heightened supply risks, lower discounts at gas hubs and signs of improving demand, adding bullish pressure to prompt and future contracts. - 12/04/2024
Brent Crude rose slightly as heightened tensions in the Middle East raised the risk of supply disruptions, though a later than expected U.S. interest rates cut dampened some of the bullish sentiment. - 12/04/2024
The UK are now scheduled for 4 LNG cargoes in April, increasing the likelihood of storage injections and helping to limit upside on near-curve gas contracts as supply levels improve. - 11/04/2024
Azerbaijan is set to increase gas exports to Europe by 17% up to 14bcm a year by 2026, improving supply security as the EU are set to fully ban Russian gas from 2027. - 11/04/2024
Norwegian flows to the UK has been reduced this morning, down 12mcm/d compared to yesterday adding some bullish pressure to day-ahead gas prices. - 11/04/2024
European storage levels are on track to be 90% full by the middle of August, helping to reduce gas procurement risk and competition for the UK, limiting upside on Winter-24 contracts. - 11/04/2024
On Tuesday the naval commander of Iran’s revolutionary guard’s warned Tehran could shut the Strait of Hormuz if required. The key trade route of the strait of Hormuz could see oil/gas prices jump significantly if this were to happen. - 11/04/2024
Temperatures are set to climb to well above seasonal average, reducing the demand for gas-fired generation and increasing the likelihood of storage injections, therefore applying bearish sentiment to prompt contracts. - 10/04/2024
The UK is now scheduled to receive a further LNG cargo over the course of April, which marks an improvement on yesterday, though LNG imports remain 93% down year-on-year - 10/04/2024
French interconnector flows remain steady alongside high wind generation which is helping to diversify the UK power stack, offering bearish pressure to the day-ahead baseload. - 10/04/2024
Global LNG supply is expected to fall 4% this month compared to last month due to reduced supplies from Qatar, Russia and the US. This is instilling bullish sentiment in near-curve contracts on tighter supply fundamentals. - 10/04/2024
Brent Crude has seen some slight gains this morning on lingering concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East offsetting a bigger-than-expected increase in U.S. crude inventories. - 10/04/2024
Torness 2 nuclear reactor is expected back online early, increasing the UK’s nuclear capacity to 91% and adding some bearish sentiment to prompt baseload contracts. - 09/04/2024
The UK is now down to 1 LNG cargo for April, a drop from the 3 previously scheduled; this is applying bullish pressure to near-curve contracts due to low supply fundamentals. - 09/04/2024
European gas demand is seasonally low, amid strong renewables and diminished heating demand, helping to offset low LNG supply and limiting upside on day-ahead gas contracts. - 09/04/2024
Concerns over stress corrosion issues on some French nuclear reactors could persist until the end of 2025, adding some bullish sentiment to further-dated baseload contracts over supply concerns. - 09/04/2024
Brent Crude has edged up this morning off the back of diminished hopes of a ceasefire talk between Israel and Hamas have ended, increasing concerns that the lingering conflict could potentially disrupt supply. - 09/04/2024
Norwegian flows to the UK have fallen due to an unplanned outage at Asgard, meaning the UK gas system has opened up short this morning, adding bullish sentiment to day ahead gas prices. - 08/04/2024
LNG cargoes scheduled for the UK for April are down 90% year-on-year, applying some bullish pressure to near-curve contracts on a reduction in LNG supply. - 08/04/2024
Wind generation is set to increase into tomorrow, adding bearish pressure to day ahead baseload contracts as output is expected to be around the 13GW level. - 08/04/2024
EU solar power is set to increase by 150GW this year and next, with current capacity at 250GW helping to reduce fossil fuel demand in the summer months, adding some bearish pressure further along the curve. - 08/04/2024
Brent Crude has experienced some downside this morning as Middle Eastern tensions ease, with talks of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas back on the table. - 08/04/2024
Brent crude extended gains today and are on track for a second weekly gain, as geopolitical tensions in the Europe and the Middle East, as well as concerns over tightening supply push the price up. - 05/04/2024
Day-ahead baseload prices are seeing some bullish movement today with wind generation output on Monday forecast to drop to 9.7GW, a significant drop compared to the levels that are expected over the weekend. - 05/04/2024
Torness 1 nuclear reactor is scheduled to go offline today for an extended period of maintenance which is expected to last until mid-June, this is causing some bullish pressure to be added to the near-curve. - 05/04/2024
Power interconnector flows to the UK from France remain strong this morning, importing 3.5GW of low carbon electricity with France’s current nuclear capacity at a 3-year high, limiting upside in day-ahead prices. - 05/04/2024
The UK system opened 23mcm/d long this morning, as temperatures are rising above seasonal levels, resulting in gas demand over the coming days is set to be reduced, applying some bearish pressure to prompt gas. - 05/04/2024
The UK is now scheduled to receive 3 LNG cargoes in April, this is still a significant reduction in LNG year-on-year which is resulting in some bullish pressure being applied to the near-curve contracts. - 04/04/2024
Day-ahead baseload contracts are seeing some bearish movement as a result of the forecasted increase in wind generation into tomorrow, with output expected to be around the 14GW level. - 04/04/2024
Norwegian flow nominations to the UK again remain almost unchanged from yesterday at 88mcm/d, with flows via Langeled, FLAGS and Vesterled, mitigating any upside in day-ahead gas contracts. - 04/04/2024
France’s nuclear output in Q1-24 reached its highest levels for the period since 2021, if this trend continues throughout 2024 it will significantly improve Frances’s export capacity to the UK via interconnector flows. - 04/04/2024
Brent crude prices rose slightly this morning, on concerns of lower supply as major producers are keeping output cuts in place and on signs of stronger economic growth in the US, the worlds top oil consumer. - 04/04/2024
Wind generation output is forecast to drop below seasonal levels tomorrow to 8.9GW which is applying some bullish pressure to the day-ahead baseload contract on increased gas-for-power demand. - 03/04/2024
The Heysham 1-2 nuclear reactor is expected to return to the UK grid today after an extended period of maintenance, this return should help to mitigate any potential upside in day-ahead contracts. - 03/04/2024
Norwegian flow nominations to the UK remain almost unchanged today at 91mcm/d, helping to applying continued bearish pressure to the day-ahead gas contract. - 03/04/2024
Russia’s Arctic LNG 2 has suspended gas liquefaction amid sanctions and a lack of tankers after ship Russia was forced to find a new builder for tankers, which could increase global competition for LNG cargoes. - 03/04/2024
Brent crude has further extended its gains this morning as concerns continue around crude and fuel supplies, following Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and the potential for a widening conflict in the Middle East. - 03/04/2024
The number of LNG cargoes scheduled for the UK in April increased this morning to 2, with just 1 previously scheduled helping to provide some bearish sentiment to the near-curve despite the year-on-year reductions. - 02/04/2024
A sharp increase in wind generation output is forecast for tomorrow, with output expected to be at the 13 GW mark, providing some bearish sentiment to day-ahead power contracts. - 02/04/2024
Norwegian flows to the UK are 8mcm/d up today from Thursday at 93mcm/d, with flows via Langeled up 1mcm/d to 73mcm/d, providing some bearish pressure to the day-ahead gas contract. - 02/04/2024
The Hartlepool 2 nuclear reactor returned over the weekend after a lengthy outage due to steam valve issues and a subsequent boiler tube leak, providing some bearish pressure to the near-curve. - 02/04/2024
Brent crude prices rose this morning underpinned by signs that demand might start to grow in China and the US, with continued concerns of a widening conflict in the Middle East also providing some bullish sentiment. - 02/04/2024
Power interconnectors to the UK remain strong and are currently sitting at 19%, providing some bearish sentiment to day-ahead power contracts on a diverse power stack. - 28/03/2024
Total Norwegian flows are up this morning and are currently sat at 341mcm/d, despite the Kollsnes facility running into a “process problem”, however strong flow are likely to provide bearish sentiment to day-ahead gas contracts. - 28/03/2024
UK carbon credits have been exposed to some slight bullish pressure as a result of falling wind generation into tomorrow, with wind forecast to only generate 6MW of power, increasing the UK’s dependence on carbon emitters. - 28/03/2024
The 595MW facility Torness 2 is expected to go offline today for planned maintenance, while the ongoing outage at Heysham 1-2 has been extended by three days, limiting the downside on day-ahead power contracts. - 28/03/2024
Brent Crude is trending sideways today on investors reassessing the latest data on US Crude oil and gasoline inventories, whilst the commodity experiences a slight uptick in buying pressure. - 28/03/2024
Wind generation is continuing to rise into tomorrow supported by temperatures sitting around seasonal norms, providing downside to day-ahead energy contracts on less demand for expensive gas-fired generation. - 27/03/2024
Due to ongoing maintenance at the Rough facility, withdrawals and injection are unavailable until the 4th of April, leaving the UK reliant on our mid-range storage. - 27/03/2024
Norwegian flows are up today and are currently sitting at 347mcm/d, as maintenance at the Tolmount facility is coming to an end, providing downside to day-ahead gas contracts on strong supply. - 27/03/2024
US company Berkshire Hathaway Energy, the operator of Cove Point LNG terminal, have said that LNG operations will not be impacted by the collapse of a bridge in the port of Baltimore. - 27/03/2024
Brent Crude is seeing some downside after a report that crude stockpiles in the US have surged and on signs major producers are unlikely to change their output policy at a technical meeting next week. - 27/03/2024
Day-ahead energy contracts could see some downside on increasing levels of wind generation into tomorrow on reduced demand for gas-fired generation. - 26/03/2024
The UK gas system opened 12mcm long this morning, providing potential downside to day-ahead energy contracts on supply outweighing demand. - 26/03/2024
Northwest Europe storage levels are currently 5% above last year’s levels, while it is forecasted that NWE will end this winter with supplies 55% full. - 26/03/2024
Power interconnector flows to the UK continue to remain strong and are currently sitting at 21%, providing downside to day-ahead power contracts on robust supply. - 26/03/2024
Brent crude is moving sideways as investors adopt a more mixed view towards the loss of Russian refinery capacity following recent Ukrainian attacks, although a slightly weaker US dollar has offered some support. - 26/03/2024
Total Norwegian flows are up this morning at 346mcm/d, despite an ongoing unplanned outage at the Tolmount facility, providing downside to day-ahead gas contracts on strong supply. - 25/03/2024
Looking ahead into tomorrow we can see wind generation is seeing a slight decrease, which could provide some slight upside to day-ahead energy contracts on more demand for gas-fired generation. - 25/03/2024
Today, we saw the return of Heysham 1-1 after being offline for over 14 weeks. This facility was scheduled to resume operations on the 6th of April but has been brought forward, providing downside to nearer dated power contracts. - 25/03/2024
Power interconnectors flows to the UK remain strong, currently sitting at 7.7GW, providing downside to day-ahead power contracts on robust power supply. - 25/03/2024
Brent crude has seen some upside this morning on concerns over tighter global supply brought about by escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine, while a shrinking US rig count also added to upwards price pressure. - 25/03/2024
The La Nina weather phenomenon is set to replace El Nino in June. This could signify a stronger US hurricane season, which could in turn potentially impact US LNG exports, which would provide bullish sentiment. - 22/03/2024
Wind generation is set to decline over the weekend, pushing up day-ahead gas prices due to the increase in demand for gas-fired generation. - 22/03/2024
French interconnectors flows remain high, providing 12% to the UK power stack, helping to offset limited nuclear capacity and limiting upside on the day-ahead baseload contract. - 22/03/2024
UK storage levels are down 7% on last years levels, increasing the need for storage injections as we go into Q2 and therefore providing bullish pressure to near-curve prices. - 22/03/2024
Brent Crude has edged down slightly on the prospect of Gaza ceasefire that could ease geopolitical concerns in the Middle East alongside faltering U.S. gasoline demand. - 22/03/2024
Freeport LNG have taken trains 1 and 2 offline until May due to unplanned maintenance, with Europeans exports down 38% in February already, adding bullish pressure to front season prices on limited supply. - 21/03/2024
Temperatures are set to decline below seasonal levels, increasing gas-for-heating demand and limiting downside on day-ahead gas contracts. - 21/03/2024
Norwegian flows have increased to 337mcm/d, with the UK receiving the most of this increase, coupled with the gas system opening oversupplied this morning it is adding bearish pressure to day-ahead contracts. - 21/03/2024
The EU have extended their carbon tax to include LNG cargoes starting in 2024, pushing up European gas prices and potentially splitting the LNG market in two and could have long term ramifications. - 21/03/2024
Brent Crude is trading sideways this morning as U.S. crude and gasoline stock drawdowns was met with the U.S Federal Reserve potentially keeping interest rates higher for longer. - 21/03/2024
The onset of storage replenishment heading in Q2 along with lower LNG prices incentivising demand in Asia is adding bullish sentiment to near-curve gas contracts due to increasing supply competition. - 20/03/2024
Heysham 2-8 nuclear reactor is back online a day early, increasing the UK’s nuclear capacity to 73%, providing bearish sentiment to prompt baseload contracts. - 20/03/2024
The UK gas system opened up 13mcm oversupplied this morning, with Norwegian flows recovering from FLAGS to the UK, providing bearish pressure to day-ahead gas prices. - 20/03/2024
Wind generation is set to increase above seasonal normal levels in the coming days, reducing the need for gas-fired generation providing downside to day-ahead contracts. - 20/03/2024
Brent Crude edged down slightly this morning, due to a strong dollar making oil more expensive for purchases in foreign currencies and dampening demand. - 20/03/2024
The Heysham 1-1 and Heysham 1-2 nuclear reactor restart dates have been further extended into late March and early April, applying bullish sentiment to prompt contracts due to reduced online nuclear availability. - 19/03/2024
Temperatures are sat comfortably above seasonal norms, helping to reduce the demand for gas-for-heating, limiting upside on day-ahead gas contracts. - 19/03/2024
Outages at Freeport LNG have reduced output capacity to 29%, limiting exports and contributing to bullish pressure on near-curve gas contracts on a reduction in supply. - 19/03/2024
European interconnectors flows remain strong, providing 6GW to the UK power stack, helping to offset low wind generation and limiting upside on day-ahead baseload contracts. - 19/03/2024
Brent Crude has dipped slightly this morning, partly due to the prospect of increasing supply from Russia and slower-than-expected downstream demand. - 19/03/2024
Norwegian flows have been limited to 327mcm/d due to a number of outages and delivery problems via FLAGS to the UK, adding bullish pressure to day-ahead gas prices due to limited supply. - 18/03/2024
The UK is now scheduled to receive 7 LNG cargoes in March, helping to limit upside on near-curve gas contracts as supply fundamentals improve, making storage injections more likely. - 18/03/2024
A sharp decline in wind generation is helping to push up U.K. carbon prices as demand is set to increase, as well as adding bullish sentiment to the day-ahead baseload contract. - 18/03/2024
The Heysham 1-1 nuclear reactor is set to return to service, increasing the UK's nuclear capacity to 4.7GW, providing bearish sentiment to prompt contracts. - 18/03/2024
Brent Crude has seen some upside this morning on the view that supply is tightening, while the supply risks are being further heightened by the Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. - 18/03/2024
Interconnector flows remain strong this morning, providing 8.5 GW to the U.K. power stack, limiting upside to day-ahead baseload contracts. - 15/03/2024
Oil prices dipped slightly this morning but are anticipated to climb by almost 4% for the week, driven by the IEA's reassessment of its oil demand forecasts and an unforeseen decrease in U.S. stockpiles. - 15/03/2024
European storage levels are currently 6.6% higher than they were at the same point last year, helping to mitigate European gas procurement risk during the storage replenishment season. - 15/03/2024
Temperatures are expected to drop throughout the weekend, potentially driving up demand for gas heating and thereby limiting the downward pressure on day-ahead gas contracts. - 15/03/2024
Europe’s power demand is set to increase by 2.9% in 2024 and 2.7% in 2025, which would instill bullish pressure to further-dated contracts on increased demand. - 15/03/2024
The UK already has its first LNG cargo scheduled for April - a possible signal of intent to begin replenishing storage at the turn of the month when prices may be lower, and this is having a bearish effect on UK gas contracts. - 14/03/2024
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