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Our experts share the updates that matter in our global energy market feed.
Unseasonably low wind generation continues to provide bullish pressure to prompt baseload contracts. However, an uptick in solar generation and warmer-than-average temperatures are limiting upside. - 13/10/2025
UK gas futures are neutral-bearish this morning as markets await heightened speculation over US–China trade talks. While Trump initially threatened 100% tariffs on Friday, his stance has since become more subdued. - 13/10/2025
Egypt has begun deferring LNG cargoes for Oct-25 due to lower-than-expected demand, leading to redirection towards Europe and providing downside to near-curve gas contracts on anticipated higher market supply. - 13/10/2025
Parts of Ukraine face blackouts as Russia continues to intensify attacks on energy infrastructure, with escalation expected as winter approaches, maintaining some geopolitical risk along the curve. - 13/10/2025
Hamas’ release of Israeli hostages under a US-brokered ceasefire has eased geopolitical tensions, prompting cautious optimism in global energy markets amid hopes for regional stability and reduced supply risks. - 13/10/2025
Wind generation is forecast to remain well below seasonal norms into Monday, providing bullish pressure to prompt baseload. However, an expected increase in nuclear capacity to 73% next week is limiting further upside. - 10/10/2025
The day-ahead gas contract is trading neutral-bullish this morning, with improving Norwegian flows being offset by increasing LDZ demand, up 6 mcm/d, and gas-for-power demand rising to 13 mcm/d. - 10/10/2025
Russian air strikes have disabled 60% of Ukraine’s gas production, intensifying concerns over winter supply shortages and keeping prices supported along the curve amid rising geopolitical tensions. - 10/10/2025
The UK has secured a second LNG cargo for Nov-25 delivery, with four scheduled for Oct-25. This helps offset some concerns about tighter gas margins heading into winter, as the UK continues to attract cargoes. - 10/10/2025
A Frontier Economics study speculates that German gas prices could surpass EUR 150/MWh in a cold winter with low storage, offering bullish signals to near-curve energy contracts amid heightened import reliance. - 10/10/2025
Winter weather conditions will remain pivotal to near-curve pricing over the coming months, with ICIS suggesting that TTF prices could fall by around 19% under milder conditions, but rise by up to 30% in a very cold scenario. - 09/10/2025
The EU failed to agree on a joint plan to phase out Russian gas, after two major member states objected, arguing that the proposed “ex ante authorisation,” or prior approval, would not be an effective tool. - 09/10/2025
Despite tighter gas margins, National Gas and NESO expect the UK to have sufficient supplies this winter, aided by higher electricity margins from growing renewable generation, though the tighter balance could limit downside. - 09/10/2025
Analysts speculate that the EU ETS could exceed €100/t by 2027 amid an ongoing reduced market, with Dec-25 EUA targeting €85/t by year-end, supporting EU and UK ETS prices and by extensions baseload futures. - 09/10/2025
Israel and Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire, with the deal set to be signed today, ending two years of conflict in the region. Israeli troops are set to withdraw from Gaza within 24 hours, easing some geopolitical risk along the curve. - 09/10/2025
Ukraine is set to increase gas imports by 30% after ongoing Russian attacks on energy infrastructure impacted domestic gas output, lending some support to contracts along the curve amid tighter regional supply dynamics. - 08/10/2025
Gold has surged to a record high of $4,000 an ounce for the first time, up 53% year-to-date, reflecting growing investor anxiety over a potential global recession amid mounting economic and geopolitical uncertainty. - 08/10/2025
Average US LNG exports are expected to rise 23.5% this year compared to last, and increase by a further 10% over 2025 levels in 2026 to reach record highs, providing bearish signals for 2026+ contracts - 08/10/2025
An slight uptick in wind generation into tomorrow and the anticipated return of 1.8GW of nuclear capacity is providing some bearish pressure to day-ahead baseload prices, with gas-for-power demand down 7mcm/d. - 08/10/2025
Near-curve gas contracts have begun to retrace from recent gains as supply fundamentals remain favourable; however, downward revisions to cooler temperatures into Nov-25 continue to limit further downside. - 08/10/2025
While current EU storage levels remain comfortable, forecasts that inventories could fall to a seven-year low of 29% after the current winter period could offer bullish signals for increased replenishment over Summer 2026. - 07/10/2025
Hungary has recently signed 10-year LNG deals comprising 6 bcm, highlighting efforts to diversify away from Russian supplies, improving regional supply security, and limiting upside risk amid accelerated EU phase-out plans. - 07/10/2025
The EU and UK ETS are being supported by weaker wind forecasts into Nov-25 across the UK and NWE, while rising European political friction and equity market volatility could weigh on sentiment in the medium term. - 07/10/2025
After a sharp move to the upside in yesterday’s trading, UK gas futures are neutral–bullish this morning, with revised warmer temperatures into Nov-25 and firm fundamentals, offsetting rising RUS-UKR geopolitical risk. - 07/10/2025
Global LNG supply remains robust, averaging 10% higher than the previous two years, while shoulder-month demand in Japan and South Korea remains weak, helping to limit upside along the curve due to reduced competition. - 07/10/2025
An undersupplied system, increasing MRS storage injections, and unseasonably low wind generation into tomorrow, increasing gas-for-power demand, is providing bullish pressure to prompt gas and baseload prices. - 06/10/2025
Several Ukrainian gas facilities have been critically damaged after Russian attacks, a trend likely to persist throughout winter, offering bullish signals for near-curve gas contracts, as Ukraine remains a net gas importer. - 06/10/2025
UK energy futures are trading bullish, breaking from the recent sideways trend. Heightened Russian attacks on Ukraine, along with revised cooler temperature and weaker wind forecasts for Oct-25, have provided support. - 06/10/2025
The UK currently has five LNG cargoes scheduled for Oct-25 and one for Nov-25 delivery, limiting some upside along the curve, with weaker demand from Asia and Egypt easing European and UK competition. - 06/10/2025
The Brent Crude benchmark is bullish this morning, as OPEC+’s planned production hikes for Nov-25 are more modest than expected. However, a continued muted demand outlook has limited further gains. - 06/10/2025
Day-ahead baseload is trading bullish, with a slight decrease in UK and much of NWE wind into Monday along with strengthening carbon. Prompt gas is neutral-bearish as flows from Norway recovering through Langeled. - 03/10/2025
2026+ baseload futures are neutral to neutral-bullish this morning, but could receive support from Norwegian policy as the parliament is pressured by left wing parties to not renew contracts from 2026 onwards. - 03/10/2025
Day-ahead energy contracts are receiving some support from French strikes, which cut 2.2 GW of nuclear and gas output, though the near-curve is shrugging this off as it fails to offset broader bearish fundamentals. - 03/10/2025
UK carbon is making gains in morning trading, in line with EU carbon. EU carbon has been spurred by bullish equity markets, whilst the UK is receiving support from fresh discussions around linkage. - 03/10/2025
Near-curve and closer-dated seasonal gas contracts are neutral-bullish in morning trading after making marginal gains yesterday. Continued bearish fundamentals are limiting the upside in the market. - 03/10/2025
Prompt power contracts are bearish amid strong increases in wind generation into tomorrow, reinforced by the return of Hartlepool 1 (595MW). Day-ahead gas is neutral-bearish on improving Norwegian gas flows. - 02/10/2025
After four days of declining near-curve and closer-dated seasonal gas contracts, markets opened neutral-bullish but have started shifting down as positive fundamentals exert bearish influence. - 02/10/2025
In a revised forecast, BP have delayed the global oil demand peak from 2025 to 2030 due to slower efficiency gains. This is lending support to Brent crude, as well as later-dated gas futures due to oil-indexed LNG. - 02/10/2025
Energy futures and crude could receive some support in coming weeks as the EU moves to close loopholes on Russian fuel imports, though member state divisions keep uncertainty elevated. - 02/10/2025
UK carbon is trading neutral, with a lack of strength in yesterday's technical rebound. Market direction is limited, but could be influenced by the upcoming deadline for the Carbon Budget Delivery Plan is this month. - 02/10/2025
Prompt power and gas contracts are bearish amid strong increases in wind generation into tomorrow, reinforced by a slight increase in solar, a reduction in LDZ demand and improved Norwegian gas flows. - 01/10/2025
Belgium shuts its 1 GW Tihange reactor today, number 4 of 7 due for closure. The move highlights Europe’s split energy path, with some nations closing reactors while others consider opening new or restarting units. - 01/10/2025
Near-curve seasonal gas contracts are down in morning trading as positive sentiment for the winter is maintained, with current forecasts suggesting a milder winter, whilst storage and LNG supply are comfortable. - 01/10/2025
Later-dated seasonal contracts could be influenced by EU ministers approving simpler CBAM rules exempting 90% of importers. This may support stronger industrial demand, though macro challenges remain. - 01/10/2025
The Dec-25 UK carbon contract fell yesterday to retest the £54.50 support level, but recovering on a technical rebound today. This highlights the continued strength of carbon markets, with limited downside potential. - 01/10/2025
The prompt power contract is trading bearish this morning amid forecasts of a sharp increase in wind output into tomorrow. However, forecasts of a strong decline in solar output to below seasonal-norms limits downside. - 30/09/2025
President Trump has enforced new tariffs on wood products from 14-Oct, capped at 10% for Britain and 15% for the EU, heightening trade tensions and adding inflationary pressure to European economies. - 30/09/2025
Near-curve and the front three seasonal gas contracts are trading bearish this morning, continuing to reverse last week's gains on a warm 45d temperature forecast for Northwest Europe and positive supply fundamentals. - 30/09/2025
The Brent Crude benchmark is trading bearish this morning as expectations of increased OPEC+ supply in November weigh on prices, though geopolitical risks and limited spare capacity continue to provide support. - 30/09/2025
The US has secured Netanyahu’s backing for a Gaza peace plan including ceasefire and staged withdrawal, but Hamas’ acceptance remains uncertain, keeping geopolitical risks elevated in global energy markets. - 30/09/2025
Prompt baseload contracts are bearish as Heysham 1-1 (580MW) returns today and Heysham 2-7 (615MW) tomorrow, supplemented by a sharp rise in wind. Solar dips slightly tomorrow, offsetting some downwards pressure. - 29/09/2025
Prompt gas contracts are neutral-bearish today amid steady, but reduced, Norwegian flows and reduced gas-for-power demand. Some bearish pressure is offset by continued Continental demand for storage injections. - 29/09/2025
Near-curve and closer-dated seasonal gas contracts are trading neutral-bearish to bearish after some slight gains last week. Comfortable Europe LNG supply and storage rising above 82% are contributing to the bearish view. - 29/09/2025
France’s FNME-CGT union has called a three-day strike by power and gas workers from 30 September, raising risks of renewed capacity cuts that could add bullish pressure to day-ahead power and gas contracts this week. - 29/09/2025
Rolls-Royce says its SMRs could replace fossil fuels as baseload supply in Europe from the mid-2030s, reinforcing bearish sentiment in later-dated gas contracts as markets increasingly price in structural demand declines. - 29/09/2025
The prompt power contract is trading bullish this morning amid forecasts of a sharp decline in wind output. However, the expected return of the Hartlepool 1 and Heysham 1-1 nuclear reactors on Monday limits upside. - 26/09/2025
French energy unions have called a nationwide strike from 30-Sep to 2-Oct, threatening power and gas capacity cuts, tightening supply and heightening volatility across European energy markets. - 26/09/2025
The US Energy Secretary says cutting Russia’s gas sales to Europe is the most effective tool to pressure Moscow, with US LNG positioned to fill supply gaps which may limit any bullish sentiment. - 26/09/2025
The Brent crude benchmark has hit a seven-week high as Russia bans diesel and gasoline exports after Ukrainian drone attacks, tightening global fuel supplies ahead of peak winter demand. - 26/09/2025
President Trump has ruled out Israeli annexation of the West Bank, while unveiling a Gaza peace plan, signalling renewed diplomatic momentum; however energy markets remain sensitive to regional instability. - 26/09/2025
The prompt baseload contract is trading neutral-bearish this morning amid forecasts of a slight uptick in wind output into tomorrow. However, a sharp decrease in forecasted solar generation limits downside. - 25/09/2025
The day-ahead gas contract is trading bullish this morning, supported by stronger gas-fired generation demand amid overall weaker renewable output and reduced Norwegian flows to the UK, down by 4 mcm. - 25/09/2025
Russia plans to start operating the Sakhalin-3 gas field in 2028, boosting exports to China and domestic supply, signalling increased global gas availability and reinforcing its pivot to Asia amid ongoing Western sanctions. - 25/09/2025
French utility EDF faces funding hurdles for its €460 billion nuclear investment plan by 2040, as high debt, weak cash flow, and lower power prices strain financing, lending support to longer-dated baseload contracts. - 25/09/2025
Shell and YPF plan a December launch of front-end engineering and design (FEED) for Argentina’s $50 billion LNG project, aiming to leverage Vaca Muerta shale and boost long-term global LNG supply capacity. - 25/09/2025
The prompt power contract is trading bearish this morning amid forecasts of an increase in wind and solar output into tomorrow. However, extended outages are constraining nuclear capacity to 45%, limiting downside. - 24/09/2025
Japanese manufacturing activity fell at the fastest pace in six months this September, as tariffs and trade uncertainty weighed on output, further suppressing regional LNG demand prospects. - 24/09/2025
Sinopec has doubled output at China’s largest shale processing plant, which alongside recent increases in pipeline flows from Russia is boosting non-LNG supply and further easing Chinese purchases of LNG. - 24/09/2025
Geopolitical risk intensifies as Trump condemned Palestinian statehood recognition at the UN while unexpectedly backing Ukraine’s full territorial recovery, fuelling volatility across energy and wider financial markets. - 24/09/2025
The Brent Crude Benchmark is trading neutral-bullish this morning, as Ukraine drone strikes curb Russian supply and US president Donald Trump reiterated support for Kyiv, tightening market sentiment. - 24/09/2025
A slight increase in wind and solar output into tomorrow, reducing gas-for-power demand by 10 mcm/d, is providing bearish pressure on day-ahead baseload prices. A minor reduction in Norwegian flows keeps prompt gas supported. - 23/09/2025
UK nuclear output is constrained at 45%, with Heysham 1-2 offline until 06-Dec, and further outage extensions into Oct-25 adding pressure to the UK power stack and supporting near-curve baseload prices. - 23/09/2025
China receives its sixth LNG cargo from Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project, highlighting resilient trade flows despite Western sanctions and providing bearish signals for near-term gas market dynamics. - 23/09/2025
EU storage levels are on track to reach 90% full by mid-Nov, given current injection rates improving market sentiment. However, a mild October is crucial, as there is no scope for withdrawals to maintain target levels. - 23/09/2025
UK gas futures are neutral- bullish this morning despite comfortable supply fundamentals, with the UK securing the 1st LNG cargo for Oct-25 delivery. Bullish geopolitical signals continue to maintain upside risk along the curve. - 23/09/2025
A sharp drop in wind generation, alongside outage extensions to 1.2 GW of UK nuclear output, is supporting prompt baseload contracts. Despite a rebound in Norwegian flows, maintenance extensions add bullish risk. - 22/09/2025
Global LNG supply for Winter 2025/26 is anticipated to be 12% higher compared to last year’s levels, alleviating some concerns over supply risks into winter amid reduced Russian gas flows, limiting upside risk along the curve. - 22/09/2025
NATO will hold an emergency meeting on Tuesday over Russian violations of Estonian airspace, with reports of Russian incursions into neutral airspace over the Baltic Sea also heightening regional concerns. - 22/09/2025
UK gas futures remain sideways, with geopolitical risks emanating from Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, leaving little scope for downside; however, comfortable fundamentals continue to abate further upside risk. - 22/09/2025
Following pressure from Trump, the EU is preparing to bring its deadline for phasing out Russian LNG forward by a year. Market reaction has remained somewhat muted, as ongoing diversification improves regional energy security. - 22/09/2025
Weather fundamentals are providing support to prompt energy prices, as wind generation and temperatures fall below seasonal levels into Monday with total demand expected to be up 43mcm/d. - 19/09/2025
Workers at Shell’s Bacton gas plant have voted to strike, dates remain unconfirmed but it could potentially disrupt up to a third of UK output and European imports, offering bullish signals to near-curve gas contracts. - 19/09/2025
Analysts warn that EU carbon prices could hit €90/t by year-end, driven by a tighter EU ETS balance through 2026 and a shorter market over the next three years, offering support to UK carbon and, by extension, baseload futures. - 19/09/2025
The IEA forecasts EU gas and LNG imports could fall 25% by 2030 under a full green transition, which could offer bearish signals for further-dated contracts, though challenges may temper overall sentiment. - 19/09/2025
UK gas futures remain rangebound, with incoming EU sanctions on Russia limiting downside as Trump presses for a tougher European response, while ample LNG supply continues to provide reassurance and ease concerns. - 19/09/2025
The US Federal Reserve cut rates by 0.25% to 4%, citing a weakening job market, with further cuts expected in Oct-25 and Dec-25. The move suggests that higher tariffs are unlikely to cause persistent inflation in the US. - 18/09/2025
Poland is urging the EU to end Russian oil imports by the end of 2026, after recent Russian incursions into its airspace, aligning with the European Commission’s proposal to speed up phasing out Russian fossil fuel imports. - 18/09/2025
Nationwide French strikes have cut 1.8 GW of power capacity, including 1.1 GW of nuclear. Coupled with a sharp drop in wind output, raising demand for gas-fired generation is providing bullish pressure to day-ahead baseload. - 18/09/2025
Forecasters suggest that the second half of September and early October could see an uptick in US hurricane activity, offering some bullish signals to near-curve energy gas contracts amid potential LNG supply disruptions. - 18/09/2025
UK energy futures are neutral-bullish this morning, continuing to trade in a tight range. Near-term supply and weather fundamentals remain positive, but geopolitical developments and La Niña pose upside risks. - 18/09/2025
UK inflation holds high at 3.8%, with investors doubting the Bank of England will cut rates again this year. While high inflation may support prices, signs of economic slowdown could provide some bearish pressure along the curve. - 17/09/2025
The EU’s 19th sanctions package is at a stalemate, with the US pushing for a faster phase-out of Russian energy in the EU, while delaying further sanctions on Russia unless the EU impose additional tariffs on India and China. - 17/09/2025
The UK has secured a second LNG cargo for Sep-25 delivery to boost mid-range storage ahead of winter, with levels at their lowest since 2021. LNG stocks remain comfortable at 60%, limiting upside to near-curve gas prices. - 17/09/2025
The UK gas system opened oversupplied, but an uptick in MRS injections is supporting prompt gas prices. Meanwhile, a slight rebound in wind generation is providing downside to day-ahead baseload contracts. - 17/09/2025
Security experts speculate that as Ukraine’s momentum on Russian oil infrastructure attacks grows, gas assets may come into the crosshairs. While the likelihood remains low, sentiment could provide some bullish signals. - 17/09/2025
Wind volatility will remain a key factor in winter pricing, with persistent concerns over weak 2025 output raising the risk of above-normal gas demand into winter, providing some support to near-curve baseload contracts. - 16/09/2025
Outages at the 595MW Hartlepool 1 and 615MW Heysham 2-7 reactors have been extended by 8 and 9 days, keeping capacity at 63%, which alongside declining wind output, are supporting prompt baseload prices. - 16/09/2025
Despite calls from the US administration to accelerate the phase-out of Russian gas supplies, the EU is sticking to its end-2027 target, easing short-term supply concerns and adding bearish pressure to the gas near-curve. - 16/09/2025
The IEA warns that the natural decline rate of global oil and gas fields is intensifying, with 90% of gas production and 80% of oil production past their peak, which could offer bullish signals for oil and gas futures. - 16/09/2025
The latest 45-day temperature forecast for the UK and Northwest Europe shows temperatures slightly above seasonal normal throughout Oct-25, aiding storage replenishment and delaying the onset of the heating season. - 16/09/2025
Trump stated he is prepared to impose new sanctions on Russia if NATO nations stop buying Russian oil and take similar measures, highlighting his ongoing stalling technique on taking decisive action against Moscow. - 15/09/2025
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