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Ignite energy market report 15/7/19

WEEKLY ENERGY MARKET REPORT: 15th JULY 2019

Ignite bring you the latest energy news from across the UK and Europe. We track and analyse changes in the energy market to keep you informed and up to date. Here’s the latest news from the UK, Europe and the rest of the world.

British wholesale Power and Natural Gas markets moved significantly on the upside last week, amid a strong rally in the oil and carbon markets.

The carbon market reached an 11-year high and traded above €28/t during all days, on the back of the nomination of Ursula von der Leyen as EU commission president. One of her most important goals during her first days in office is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2030, thus implying a reduction in available carbon permits for the future. In addition, on Thursday the EU auctioned 2.776m spot carbon permits on EEX at the price of €28.5/t.

Brent crude oil jumped above $66/bbl by Friday’s close. The OPEC-led supply cuts and the tensions in the Middle East are the main bullish drivers in the oil market.

The UK energy market last week

  • The British wholesale power market rallied last week by more than 7% on average on the curve contracts. The surge is attributed to the 11-year highs in the carbon market and the generation of the relatively low renewables during all days.
  • Natural gas prices moved significantly on the upside last week due to disruption in Norwegian flows.
  • As of this morning, power prices opened firmer as the carbon makes more gains above the €29/t levels.

UK Natural Gas prices

The British wholesale natural gas prices surged by 9.8% on average from the previous week due to outages at various gas fields and a strong commodity complex.

Day-ahead closed the week at 35.90p/th, that was 11.5% higher from last week while month-ahead settled 12.5% higher from last week at 35.90p/th.

In terms of curve contracts, Win-19 settled at 56.17p/th and Sum-20 at 49.56p/th, an increase of 12.1% and 10.5% for the two contracts respectively.

UK Electricity Prices

Power prices increased substantially last week as the stronger carbon market and weak renewables generation supported the price rally up until Friday’s closing.

Day-ahead increased by 1.7% and closed at £43.90/MWh while month ahead rose by 9.5% and settled at £45.50/MWh.

Win-19 settled at £60.67/MWh and Sum-20 at £53.02/MWh, an increase of 8.8% and 8.5% within-week for both contracts respectively.

Macroeconomics

The UK’s Balance of Trade for May was published last week. The results showed a deficit of £2.32b, that is £1.4b lower compared to April’s deficit. Exports increased significantly, mainly transport equipment and fuels while food imports declined even further from April.

what to watch this week

Outlook: The upside effect on the overall commodity complex is likely to continue this week. The geopolitical tension in Middle East is one of the most apparent bullish drivers in the oil market while carbon prices keep moving higher and towards the €30/t levels.

Wednesday, July 17: The YoY UK inflation rate for June will be announced at 09.30 am UK time. The inflation rate in May was at 2%.

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